Could the impact from Trump and Musk's relationship be bigger?
 Polymarket
 After a previous announcement with Kalshi was pushed back, Elon Musk's social media platform X has teamed up with the prediction market platform Polymarket.

 Polymarket revealed today that it will be the official prediction market partner for the social media site.  

 Linda Yaccarino, CEO of X, said, "We are happy to work with Polymarket and look forward to bringing their data and technology to Polymarket users through a variety of creative product integrations."

 Polymarket and X aim to release a solution that works with the cryptocurrency-focused prediction betting platform and provide "data-driven" insights.  Polymarket predictions will use data from the social media site to make live insights and add real-time notes to prediction market products.

 "By combining Polymarket's accurate, unbiased, and real-time prediction market probabilities with Grok's analysis and X's real-time insights, we will be able to give millions of Polymarket users around the world data-driven insights that are relevant to them right away," said Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan.

 Polymarket is not legal in the US.
 The Commodity Futures Trading Commission does not have this platform registered, hence it is not technically allowed in the US.  Polymarket, which is based in New York, reached a deal with the CFTC in January 2022 that said US users couldn't access the site.

 Instead, the exchange has shifted its focus to the world stage, and it's been quite successful.  During the US elections in November, Polymarket saw billions of dollars in trading volume. One well-known deal was a "whale" bettor from France who gained $85 million on Trump's victory.  Polymarket, like other prediction markets, now also offers sports contracts.

 Polymarket is different from other CFTC-registered exchanges because it mostly uses cryptocurrencies for deals. Critics believe this raises a lot of KYC and AML issues.  People have also said bad things about the site's wide selection of contracts.  Some bad examples are bets on when Pope Francis will die in the spring and on certain parts of the California wildfires in January.

 Trump and Musk's fallout
 Kalshi, a prediction market, said on May 20 that it was working with Elon Musk's xAI, an artificial intelligence company.  But the proclamation was taken back the same day, and no other information was given.

 had a few days after Elon Musk and US President Donald Trump got into a public fight on social media over a Republican Party budget bill that had passed through the House, the news of the latest X prediction market cooperation came out.

 The Trump family, especially Donald Trump Jr., has supported Kalshi in the past.  In January, Kalshi hired Trump Jr. as a strategic advisor.

 He stated on X 13 January: "On Election night at Mar-a-Lago, while biassed news outlets called the race a coin toss, my family and close friends used the prediction market @Kalshi to know we won hours before the fake news media."

 "I knew right away that I had to help them with their mission."  I'm happy to say that I am now a strategic advisor for Kalshi.

 President Trump and Elon Musk's public fight became much worse yesterday, with both of them calling each other out on their own social media sites, Truth Social and X.

 Musk said that Trump only became president because he had money behind him. Trump then threatened to shut off all federal contracts and subsidies that go to Musk's firms.

 Musk kept the fight going by tweeting on X that Trump had a further link with Jeffrey Epstein, saying, "Time to drop the really big bomb: @realDonaldTrump is in the Epstein files."  That is the real reason they haven't been made public.